Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

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Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

机译：海河流域气候变化情景下的水文变化模拟

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Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

机译：使用PRECIS的区域气候建模系统（为影响研究提供区域气候）预测的气候变化情景，用于推导三层可变渗透能力（VIC-3L）地表模型，以空间分辨率模拟水文过程海河流域的0.25°×0.25°本研究考虑了三种气候情景：近期气候（1961-1990年），未来气候A2（1991-2100年）和未来气候B2（1991-2100年），其中A2和B2是政府间气候变化专门委员会制定的未来排放的两个故事情节。气候变化（IPCC）有关排放情景的特别报告。总体而言，在未来的气候情景A2和B2下，与最近的气候相比，海河流域将经历较暖的气候，降水，蒸发和径流产量增加，但在2031-2070年期间仍很可能会出现水资源短缺。另外，在未来的气候A2和B2下，湿季的径流量增加，表明海河流域发生洪灾的可能性增加。

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来源
《土壤圈（英文版）》 |2005年第5期|595-600|共6页
作者
YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun;
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作者单位

LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China);

College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 (China);

LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China);

LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China);

Institute of Geographical Science & Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China);

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收录信息中国科学引文数据库(CSCD);中国科技论文与引文数据库(CSTPCD);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类大气科学（气象学）;
关键词
climate change, regional climate modeling system, runoff, VIC-3L model;

机译：气候变化;区域气候模拟系统;径流;VIC-3L模型;

Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

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