首页> 中文期刊> 《人口与经济》 >尽快实施城乡“普遍允许二孩”政策既利国又惠民

尽快实施城乡“普遍允许二孩”政策既利国又惠民

         

摘要

Based on present reality, objective existing demographic laws, and analysis on 2010 census and other recent data, we propose to start as soon as possible the preparation in 2015 and implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016 in nationwide rural and urban areas.More specifically, we suggest that in the less developed rural areas, while universally allowing farmers to have their second child, the family planning program may encourage adequate spacing to avoid birth heaping;in the urban and more developed rural areas where late-childbearing and low fertility have become a normal social practice, the universal two-child policy should be implemented with no need to encourage birth spacing.We demonstrated that the universal two-child policy will not only satisfy people’ s desires for two children but also absolutely not-causing birth heaping, and it is a win-win policy for both the nation and people.As compared to the current fertility policy, the universal two-child policy is much better in some aspects of future demographic and socioeconomic conditions, and it is much more useful to strengthen the balanced socioeconomic development in China.%根据我国当前国情和客观存在的人口规律,以及基于2010年人口普查和相关近期调查等新数据分析,我们建议尽快在2015年进行摸底准备,2016年在全国城乡实施“普遍允许二孩”政策,即在生育势能大的农村欠发达地区,在实施普遍允许二孩政策前提下提倡适当晚育以避免出生堆积,在自愿晚育少生已成常态的城镇和较发达农村地区则一步到位而无需晚育政策。这既满足民众生二孩愿望,又绝不会导致人口失控,是切实可行的国家百姓“双赢”方案。它在众多方面大大优于只开放单独,大大有利于促进人口经济社会均衡发展。

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