考虑风速和负荷预测误差的随机性、风力发电机组和常规机组的停运率,应用蒙特卡洛仿真方法对含风电场的发电系统进行可靠性评估.针对发电系统概率抽样中蒙特卡洛算法样本容量大、效率低等不足,提出了分散抽样蒙特卡洛算法,此抽样算法将[0,1]区间分成若干子区间,在抽样后分别对每个子区间进行系统状态判断和指标计算,从而增加故障状态的抽样频率,提高抽样效率,在满足精度要求下,有效地减少了抽样次数.以含10台常规机组和1个风电场的发电系统进行了仿真,结果验证了该评估方法的有效性.%The reliability of power generation system with Wind Power Penetration is evaluated based on Monte-Carlo simulation.In the reliability assessment,the prediction error randomness of wind speed and power load,failure rate of wind turbine generator and conventional generator are taken into account.Monte-Carlo simulation used in power generation system needs large sample size and has low efficiency.So the scattered sampling technique which divides the interval[0,1]into several sub-interval is applied to Monte-Carlo simulation.In each sub-interval,the system status need to be judged and indexed respectively.The scattered sampling technique is able to reduce sample times and enhance sampling efficiency.A simulation for power generation system with 10 conventional generators and 1 wind farm is carried out.The result verifies the adaptability and feasibility of the proposed evaluation strategy in generation system.
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