分析了影响光伏发电出力的主要因素,建立了基于BP神经网络的光伏发电短期出力预测模型.利用光伏电站的出力数据和气象数据对BP神经网络进行训练,根据光伏出力影响因素的分析,将不同日类型的日发电功率数据进行处理,将其映射为日类型指数作为神经网络训练、预测的输入.文章建立的预测模型可以对不同天气类型下一天各时段的出力进行预测,预测结果与实测值的比较结果表明,该模型有比较准确的预测能力和较强的适用性.%Main factors that affect power output of photovoltaic generation are evaluated and a shortterm power forecast model based on BP neutral network is established in this paper.The BP neutral network is trained according to the historical power output and weather data.Type of weather is processed as input of training and forecasting of neutral network according to its effect on power output of photovoltaic generation.The established model can be used to forecast power output on different type of weather.Results of comparing the forecast results with the actual measured values reveal that the model has accurate forecast capability and robust applicability.
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