农产品价格变动下农户生产决策的动态调整是一个既关系农户福利又影响产业安全的经济问题.基于理性预期理论,以天然橡胶为研究对象,利用对云南省西双版纳自治州612户橡胶种植户的调查数据,分析天然橡胶价格预期变动下农户的生产调整行为,探讨影响农户价格反应行为的决定因素.结果表明,农户在预期橡胶价格变动幅度越大时选择生产调整行为的可能性越高,并且在预期价格上升时调整生产行为的概率显著大于下降时,橡胶价格下降时,29.58%的农户会采取反应措施,而预期橡胶价格上升时,农户采取反应措施的达53.92%,呈现显著的非对称性反应.受到户主和家庭社会经济特征及橡胶种植园生产条件等因素的影响,农户应对天然橡胶价格变动的生产调整行为存在异质性.研究结果对近年来天然橡胶价格下降背景下的胶农的福利、橡胶的可持续发展以及天然橡胶战略资源安全等相关政策的制定有着重要的现实意义.因此,建议相关部门制定相应政策引导农户合理调整橡胶种植结构,出台必要补贴政策,保障农户收益及其对橡胶种植的积极性,从而实现我国天然橡胶产业的再生产与可持续发展.%The dynamic adjustment of farmers' production is an important economic issue related to farmers' welfare and industrial safety in the context of price volatility of agro products. Based on the data collected from 612 rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna, we investigated the response of farmers' production adjustment to the hypothetic volatility of rubber price. The results suggest that the likelihood of farmers' production adjustment is positively associated with the magnitude of price volatility, but the adjustment is asymmetric in magnitude between rubber price increases and decreases. Smallholders are more likely to adjust rubber production when price increases, compared to the case of price decline. Only 29.58% of farmers will adjust their production behaviors when the price of natural rubber is provided to decline; while the percent of farmers adjusting their production behaviors when the price of natural rubber is anticipated to increase is up to 53.92%. Farmers' responses to the price volatility are heterogeneous due to the multivariate effects of the socioeconomic characteristics of households and the nature of rubber plantation. The findings have important implications for a better understanding of the sustainable development of rubber industry in the context of recent decline in rubber price. We recommend the relevant agencies of local government to guide farmers to adjust the planting structure of rubber plantations reasonably, provide necessary subsidy, and ensure farmers' benefits and enthusiasm of planting rubber, thereby promoting the sustainable development of natural rubber industry in China.
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