Nineteen indicators of water resources, water environment and socio-economic systems were selected to construct a carrying capacity evaluation index system of regional water environment, and to evaluate the water environment capacity and carrying capacity in Shenzhen using Channel One-dimensional Model, Multidimensional Model and Pattern Recognition Approach. The results showed that the water environment capacity in Shenzhen of CODCr was 195,405.3 tons per year, while that of NH3-N was 6,570.4 tons per year. Discharge of NH3-N was 57. 2% over the environment capacity in 2008. Although the discharge of CODCr was below the environmental capacity limit (due to the great environment capacity of the coastal waters) , the actual discharge of CODCr into rivers far outweighed the water environment capacity, which resulted in serious river pollution as well as acute water environment problems. The sustainable capacity degree of water environment in Shenzhen in 2008 was 0. 4, which indicated that water environment carrying capacity was in warning status, and close to critical. Therefore, it was on a trajectory of unsustainable development on the whole. Based on the actual situation in Shenzhen, three strategic suggestions for improving water environment carrying capacity were proposed, which are industrial structure adjustment, strengthening pollution control and importing water from the outside territory.%选取水资源、水环境和社会经济三大系统的19个指标,构建了区域水环境承载力评价指标体系,采用河道一维模型和多极关联评价模型分别对深圳水环境容量及其承载力进行评价.结果表明:深圳水环境容量CODcr,为195 405.3 t/a,NH3-N为6 570.4 t/a;2008年NH3-N排放量超过环境容量的57.2％.尽管CODcr排放量低于环境容量上限水平,但由于近岸海域水环境容量大,而实际入河排放量远超河流水环境容量,河流污染较为严重,水环境问题突出.2008年深圳水环境可持续承载度为0.4,水环境承载力处于预警状态,接近危机状态,总体上处于不可持续发展的轨迹上.结合深圳水环境承载力实际提出的三大对策建议为调整产业结构、加大污染治理力度以及从境外引水.
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