Human factor is one of the important factors affecting power system operation reliability.A risk as-sessment and application for dispatching operation considering human reliability is proposed.This method improves outage rate model of components and establishes real-time probabilistic of human reliability.Firstly,the state enu-meration method is used to analyze state probability from three dimensions of successful,transitional and failed dis-patching operation.Secondly,by introducing cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)and exten-sion method into four different dispatching operation scenarios,the risk quantitative is built.Finally,according to regional dispatching scenarios of IEEE-RTS79 test system verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.%人为因素是影响电力系统可靠运行的重要因素之一,提出了一种考虑人因可靠性的调度操作风险评估方法.该方法对传统的调度操作元件停运模型进行改进,建立人因可靠性的时变概率模型.首先,从调度操作成功态、过渡态、失败态等3个维度出发,利用枚举法分析调度操作过程的状态概率值.然后,引入认知可靠性和误差分析法及可拓法对不同场景下的调度操作风险进行量化分析.最后,结合地区调度场景的IEEE-RTS79测试系统验证了所述方法的可行性和实用性.
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