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探讨与汶川地震有关的焦点科学问题

         

摘要

Based on both the lately-defined Wenchuan seismic zone(version 3.6) and the theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system,several scientific issues related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were reanalyzed,e.g.,"Is the Wenchuan earthquake a mainshock?","What's the relation-ship among the 2013 MS7.0 Lushan earthquake, 2017 MS7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the Wenchuan earth-quake?","Is there the recurrence interval of the Wenchuan earthquake?","Is there obvious earthquake precur-sors before the Wenchuan earthquake?",and"Is there the connection between the Zipingpu reservoir and the Wen-chuan earthquake?". The present results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is not the mainshock in the cur-rent seismic period of the Wenchuan seismic zone and a MS8.0~8.3 characteristic earthquake will strike this seis-mic zone;there is a direct connection between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake that were closely related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and were two significant preshocks occurred between the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the expected MS8.0~8.3 characteristic earthquake;It cannot be judged at present whether there exist recurrence intervals of the characteristic earthquakes and the mainshock in the Wenchuan seis-mic zone relying on currently available data;because the physical state of the seismic source since December 18, 1995 had remained approximately unchanged,obvious medium-long-term,short-term and imminent earthquake pre-cursors to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake could not been observed;the Zipingpu reservoir had a tiny effect on the generation process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,which could be ignored.%基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论和新划定的3.6版汶川地震区,再次探讨了与2008年汶川地震有关的若干科学问题,包括该震是否为主震?该震、2013年芦山MS7.0地震、2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震之间关系?该震是否存在复发周期?该震发生前是否存在显著物理前兆?该震与紫坪铺水库之间关系?研究结果表明:汶川地震并非汶川地震区当前地震周期主震,未来将发生MS8.0~8.3标志性地震;2013年芦山地震和2017年九寨沟地震有直接联系且均与汶川地震密切相关,两者同为下一次标志性地震前的两次显著预震;汶川地震区标志性地震及其未来主震是否存在复发周期目前尚不能作出明确判断;在汶川地震前,由于自1995年12月18日后其震源体的物理状态长期保持近似不变,故不可能观测到显著的中长期与短临物理前兆;紫坪铺水库对汶川地震孕育过程的影响很小,可以忽略.

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