为了预防大规模停电事故的发生,评估电网运行时的薄弱环节,提出了一种计及多种因素的综合停运概率模型.该模型统筹考虑了电网在冰灾、风灾气候运行时的故障概率模型、线路老化失效故障概率模型以及线路在不同负载率下的故障概率模型;然后采用了一种负载率与非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法相结合的线路状态抽样方法,对不同线路故障后的运行状态进行判断,并计算出相应的损失负荷量;最后采用风险价值、平均超额损失两个指标对不同的线路故障进行评估,从而得出电网的薄弱环节.在此基础上,以湖南电网为实例进行分析,证明了综合停运概率模型的有效性和可行性.%To prevent widespread blackouts and evaluate weak links of the power grid, a comprehensive fault probability model considering multi-factors was presented. Fault probability model of ice and wind disaster, aging failure, different load rate was synthetically considered. Then a line’s status sampling method combination of load rate and non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation method is proposed. The method estimates operating condition after different fault and then calculates lost load. Finally, in order to attain weak links, the indexes of value at risk and conditional value at risk are presented to evaluate the fault of different lines. On that basis, the comprehensive fault probability model is proved effective and reliable through the analysis of Hunan power grid.
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