国际资本大规模流入中国的条件下,央行为维持汇率稳定在外汇市场采取的干预措施威胁着国内货币政策的独立性.首先估计国内货币市场的冲销系数和国际资本流动对国内货币政策的抵消系数,建立了抵消系数和冲销系数的联立方程,控制变量的选取借助了BGT模型的思路.在货币政策反应方程中引入代表不同历史时期的虚拟变量,发现1999年到2011年间央行的冲销行为发生了结构性的变化.通过在货币政策反应方程中区分不同来源的外汇储备,发现央行只冲销资本账户不冲销经常账户.不论是对外汇储备整体还是资本账户,2010年之后央行的冲销力度都显著降低.在金融一体化加剧的背景下,央行面临着币值稳定和货币政策自主的两难选择.%With iarge-scale International capital inflow of China, the central bank takes measures in the foreign exchange market intervention to maintain exchange rate stability, which threatens the independence of domestic monetary policy. The efficiency of capital control and the changing pattern and efficacy of sterilization with the modified BGT model are investigated. With the dummy variables that the extent of sterilization of foreign reserve inflows has changed between 1999 and 2011 are found, that the Central Bank only sterilizes the capital account but not the current account are also found. The extent of sterilization has fallen since 2010 and the Central Bank faces the dilemma of stability of the exchange rate and monetary policy autonomy.
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