首页> 中文期刊> 《科技管理研究》 >经济增长与化石能源脱钩测度分析--基于中国和韩国比较

经济增长与化石能源脱钩测度分析--基于中国和韩国比较

         

摘要

根据 Tapio 脱钩理论,使用基于基期的化石能源和经济增长的复合增长率重新定义脱钩弹性,并从经济学角度给出脱钩解释,得出6种脱钩状态。将脱钩弹性分解为增长替代因子、清洁因子和节能因子,并以中国和韩国为对象,实证研究3种因子对脱钩效应的贡献大小。结果表明,增长替代因子、清洁因子和节能因子为韩国化石能源消费与经济增长弱脱钩发挥显著促进作用;3种因子在中国化石能源消费与经济增长脱钩起反向作用力,只是3种因子反向作用力在减弱。这也间接说明增加非化石能源、减缓化石能源消费增速,提高一次能源消费强度,为未来碳减排和保障经济增长提供思考方向。%According to Tapio's decoupling theory,it redefines the decoupling elastic by compound growth rate between be-tween fossil energy and economic growth which based on base period.It gives decoupling explanation from economic per-spective and draws conclusion of six decoupling states.It redefines the decoupling elastic by compound growth rate between between fossil energy and economic growth which based on base period.It gives decoupling explanation from economic per-spective and draws conclusion of six decoupling states.The decoupling elastic is decomposesed into alternative growth fac-tor,cleanliness factor and energy saving factor.It makes the empirical research on the contribution of the above three fac-tors totwards decoupling effect.As a result,the three factors make significant effects on weak decoupling between fossil en-ergy consumption and economic growth in Korea.However,the three factors make reverse effort in China,which the re-verse effort is decreasing.It also indirectly suggests that share of non -fossil energy would be increased,energy consump-tion growth be slowed down and consumption intensity of primary energy be raised.They would provide referable direction for the future reduction and economic development.

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