The new emerging technologies have brought obvious impacts on competency of states, industries and enterprises, but due to the characteristic of uncertainty, fuzzy, competition and so on of emerging technology different to traditional technology, it is difficult to manage and judge the emerging technology. This paper has deeply studied the definition and characteristics of emerging technology, conducted the emerging technology industry potential evaluation by introduction of the technology foresight into the setting up of evaluation indexing system and Delphi method for evaluation. And the characteristics of emerging technology evaluated is studied from different industries and with different industry potential value within one industry respectively, by divided into two groups according to their industries and industry potential value within industry. The emerging technology characteristic of technology, marketing and so on is studied by paired sample T test in order to obtain the decisive factors affecting emerging technology industry potential. On the combination of industry potential ranking and the decisive characteristic of emerging technology would be useful to the decision-making in emerging technology industry process.%在详细研究新兴技术定义和特征的基础之上,将技术预见的方法和思想引入到新兴技术的评价与选择中,建立了评价指标体系,通过德尔菲问卷调查,对新兴技术产业化潜力进行了实证研究.基于新兴技术的产业化潜力,按照其所处行业的不同和同行业但是潜力大小的不同,将新兴技术分成两组,利用配对样本T检验方法分别对导致新兴技术产业化潜力差异变化的技术特征、市场特征以及其它特征进行识别和研究,找出了影响新兴技术产业化潜力的决定因素.综合考虑新兴技术产业化潜力的评价结果及其影响特征,可以为新兴技术的商业化和产业化提供重要的决策依据.
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