Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years

ChengHai Wang; Jian Li; XiaoGuang Xu

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Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years

机译：近50年中国近3年温度振荡的小波分析，并预测未来20年的变化

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摘要

The wavelet analysis method is used to analyze the annual and winter temperature data of 98 observation stations in China in eight climate zones during the last 50 years (1961-2009). The periodicities of temperature changes are investigated, and the possible temperature change trends in China in the next 20 years (2012-2029) are also predicted. Our results show that in the inter-annual temperature variability there are pervasive quasi-3-to quasi-4-year cycles, and these cycle changes are relatively steady. The periodic characteristics of the annual temperature changes are clearly different between northern and southern China, and our period superimposition extrapolation shows that both annual and winter temperatures in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years, more so in northern China and in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) than in the southern region, except in the southwest. If temperatures follow historic increasing linear trends, the overall temper-ature is expected to increase by 1 °C between 2010 and 2029.

机译：小波分析方法用于分析过去50年（1961-2009年）中国8个气候区98个观测站的年和冬季温度数据。研究了温度变化的周期性，并预测了未来20年（2012-2029年）中国可能的温度变化趋势。我们的结果表明，在年际温度变化中，存在普遍的准3年到准4年周期，并且这些周期变化相对稳定。中国北方和南方的年温度变化的周期性特征明显不同，我们的时期叠加推算表明，未来20年中国的年和冬季温度都将继续升高，华北和青海的温度将继续升高。 -西藏高原（QXP）高于南部地区，西南地区除外。如果温度遵循历史性的线性增长趋势，则预计2010年至2029年之间的总体温度将升高1°C。

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《寒旱区科学（英文版）》 |2013年第6期|755-766|共12页
作者
ChengHai Wang; Jian Li; XiaoGuang Xu;
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Key Laboratory for Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, College of Atmosphere Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;

Key Laboratory for Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, College of Atmosphere Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;

Key Laboratory for Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, College of Atmosphere Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;

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Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years

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