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《寒旱区科学（英文版）》
>Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China
Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China
Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin's water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeconomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin's water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate warming and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.
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Division of Hydrology Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;
