[Objective]Evaluation of forest ecological security of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China,and analysis of its changing trend are conducive to know the situation of forest ecological security in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions,and differences among them. The study was to provide a scientific basis for establishing policies to improve the ecological environment based on the local conditions. [Method]Based on the PSR model,improvements were made to develop an indicators system of evaluation of forest ecological security. The indicators system was applied in the evaluation of forest ecological security in 31 provinces,municipalities,autonomous regions using the entropy method based on the yearbook data from 1999 to 2012 . [Result]In the forest ecological carrying capacity indicators,the weight of resource indicator (0. 536) and the complexity indicator (0. 188) were significantly greater than others,indicating that the status of forest resources and complexity of the forest ecosystem was the main reason for variation among different years in the forest ecological carrying capacity in the provinces. In the human behavior indicators,the negative effect of human pressure on forests ( 0 . 995 ) was greater than the positive effect ( 0 . 005 ) brought by the maintenance of forests. Between 1999 and 2012,the comprehensive evaluation of forest ecological safety displayed a trend of increase,indicating an evident improvement of forest ecological safety in China. But there were still some provinces, such as Shanghai,Tianjin,Ningxia,Qinghai showed a far lower value (around 0. 35 on average of 3 representative years) of the comprehensive evaluation than the national average ( 0 . 546 ) ,measures need to be taken to prevent degradation of the forest ecosystem. The comprehensive evaluation of the large provinces in forestry such as Jilin and Yunnan,far higher than those of Ningxia and Shanghai. The differences among provinces of forest ecological safety has now become increasing. In the evaluation of forest ecological safety,the forest ecological carrying capacity plays a main role followed by the role of human activities. [Conclusion]The overall situation of forest ecological security in China tended to improve, however,there are big differences among provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions. The main factors causing changes in forest ecological security are the quantity and quality of forest resources. Protection of existing forests, especially the natural forest should be strengthened. Attention needs to be given to optimization of stand structure and specie composition,persistence to sustainable development,and reduction of destruction to forest resources. A pre-warning mechanism for forest ecological security should be established to prevent deterioration of forest ecological security.%【目的】评价我国31个省(市、自治区)的森林生态安全状况，对比分析其变化趋势，旨在了解各省(市、自治区)森林生态系统的安全现状及其相互之间的差异情况，为因地制宜地制定改善生态环境的政策提供科学依据。【方法】沿用传统的 PSR模型思路，从森林生态承载力和人类行为对森林生态系统的影响2个角度构建森林生态安全评价指标体系。根据年鉴数据，采用熵权法对我国31个省(市、自治区)1999—2012年的森林生态安全状况进行评价，并做对比分析。【结果】森林生态承载力指标中，资源类指标所占权重最大(0.536)，复杂性指标次之(0.188)，森林资源状况是导致各省(市、自治区)、各年份之间森林生态承载力产生差异的最主要原因；人类行为指标中，人类对森林施加压力的负面影响(0.995)大于维护森林带来的正面影响(0.005)；在研究期间，大部分省(市、自治区)森林生态安全综合评估值呈逐年上升趋势，森林生态系统安全状况得到较大改善，但仍有部分省(市、自治区)，如上海、天津、宁夏、青海等地，其1999，2004和2009年3个代表年份的平均综合评估值均在0.350左右，远低于全国平均水平0.546，需重点关注并采取措施防止森林生态系统退化；各省(市、自治区)之间森林生态安全状况存在较大差异，吉林、云南等林业大省的综合评估值远高于宁夏、上海等地，全国各省(市、自治区)的森林生态安全状况呈现较为严重的两极分化现象；在综合评价某省(市、自治区)的森林生态系统安全状况时，森林生态承载力的影响为主，人类行为的影响为辅。【结论】我国森林生态安全状况整体呈改善趋势，但各省(市、自治区)之间存在较大差异，出现两极分化现象；引起各省(市、自治区)森林生态安全状况变动的主要因素是森林资源的数量和质量。必须加强对现有森林尤其是天然林的保护；在造林的同时注意林分和林种结构的合理搭配；加强对可持续发展的重视，减少对森林资源的破坏；建立森林生态系统安全预警机制，及时对森林生态安全恶化的风险进行防范。
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