[目的]基于种群生存力分析,为孤立种群中华斑羚的物种保护提供依据.[方法]根据赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区隔离分布的中华斑羚种群连续10年的观察数据,参照种群大小、婚配制度、环境容纳量、遗传多样性、灾害发生的频率等种群参数,并结合斑羚其他种群的研究结果,利用漩涡模型(Vortex 10.2.7.0)进行种群生存力模拟分析.[结果]该种群未来100年的存活率将下降到0.33.新生幼崽性比、新生雌性幼崽死亡率、成年雌性死亡率是影响斑羚种群增长的重要限制因子.如能补充外源个体,即每3年补充1只雌性和1只雄性,该地区斑羚数量能稳定增长,无灭绝风险.[结论]该地区斑羚种群的生存动态不容乐观,补充外源个体是促进种群增长最有效的方法.严寒冬季补充饲料和营养盐,改善个体生存和繁殖条件,也是维持种群稳定的重要措施.%[Objective] This research aimed to provide reference for the protection of the isolated wildlife population of Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus) by using the Population Viability Analysis (PVA).[Method] The updated Vortex package was used to make a simulation analysis on population viability of a closed Chinese goral group based on 10 years field monitoring data on the Chinese goral population at Inner Mongolia Saihanwala nature reserve. The simulation referred to the data of population size, mating system, environmental capacity, genetic diversity, catastrophes frequency, and information collected from other populations of the goral species.[Result] The result indicated that the survival probability of this population would be 0.33 in the next 100 years if no translocation occurred. Additionally, sex ratio at birth, mortality of infant females and the mortality of adult females would seemingly play crucial roles in determining persistence by the sensitivity analysis. If a translocation (supplementation with one female and one male adult every three years) can be ensured, the Chinese goral population in the study area will grow steadily, without risk of extinction.[Conclusion] Population viability for this isolated Chinese goral group is not optimistic. A supplementation by extra goral individuals would be the most effective measure for stable population growth. Supplementation of feedings and nutrient salt in harsh winter is also an important measure to improve individual survival and breeding conditions in maintaining present population.
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