Based on the data derived from the 122 auto -meteorological observation stations in Shandong Province in facility production season from 1984 to 2013 and the greenhouse auto -micro -climate observation stations in Linzi,Laiwu and Dongying from 2007 to 2014,the chilling injury grade indexes of tomato inside greenhouse were used to analyze the chilling injury grade indexes of tomato outside greenhouse by 80% guar-antee rate method.Then the chilling injury grade indexes of tomato outside greenhouse were used to statistical-ly analyze the change rules of the chilling injury of greenhouse tomato in Shandong Province in recent 30 years.The results showed that the chilling injury mainly happened in December,January and February.The risk probability values of 122 stations in Shandong under different chilling injury grades for different time lengths were calculated by the Matlab program based on the information diffusion theory.The risk probability distribution maps were drawn using ArcGIS platform for chilling injury in Shandong.%基于1984年至2013年山东省设施农业生产季（每年10月至次年4月）自动气象观测站资料及2007年至2014年日光温室小气候自动观测站资料，结合日光温室内番茄低温冷害等级指标，利用80％保证率方法，统计分析得到了日光温室外番茄低温冷害等级指标；应用该指标，对近30年山东省日光温室番茄低温冷害进行统计分析，结果表明，低温冷害主要发生在12月、1月及2月；引入信息扩散理论，通过 Matlab 程序编写，计算得到了全省122个县站不同低温冷害等级下不同发生时间长度的风险概率值；利用 ArcGIS 绘制得到全省低温冷害发生风险概率分布图。
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