The application of the theory of grey GM(1,1)model is established to predict the deformation of the tunnel and analysis the stability of surrounding rock. According to monitoring and prediction results,some reinforcement methods have been proposed,such as the surface were sprayed concrete,anchor grouting,excavate the tunnel with the methods have smaller disturbance to the soil and add spacers under the arch, which control the tunnel deformation well. The experiences and conclusions presented can be adopted in the design,construction and research of similar tunnels.%应用灰色理论建立GM（1，1）模型对隧道变形进行预测，以判断围岩稳定性，并根据监测及预测结果，提出对地表进行喷锚加固、改变隧洞开挖方法、拱架下增设垫块的措施，以有效控制隧道变形，同时可为类似工程的设计、施工和监测提供借鉴。
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