In order to forecast fall point accurately with trajectory coordinate measured for one dimension trajectory correction projectile fired by shipborne gun, made research on current trajectory parameters identification algorithms, and the method of forecasting fall point was presented by filtering trajectory coordinates, identifying equivalent weather condition errors with the difference between filtered trajectory coordinates and forecast trajectory coordinates, and calculating trajectory equation. The precision of the method was also studied. It was proved by simulating with weather error data that the method could improve the precision of forecasting fall point for one dimension trajectory correction projectile.%为了能由实测的一段弹道坐标,准确地预测舰炮-维弹道修正弹落点,在研究目前弹道参数辨识方法的基础上,针对一维弹道修正中预测落点的要求,提出对实测弹道坐标滤波、利用实测弹道坐标滤波值与预定弹道坐标的偏差辨识等效气象误差、通过解弹道方程预测落点的一种方法,并进行精度分析.假设气象误差值,仿真表明该方法能够提高预测落点精度.
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