Modeling Interstation Travel Speed of Hybrid Bus Rapid Transit within A Bayesian Framework

Ji-hua Hu; Jia-xian Liang

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Modeling Interstation Travel Speed of Hybrid Bus Rapid Transit within A Bayesian Framework

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cqvip:Interstation travel speed is an important indicator of the running state of hybrid Bus Rapid Transit and passenger experience. Due to the influence of road traffic, traffic lights and other factors, the interstation travel speeds are often some kind of multi-peak and it is difficult to use a single distribution to model them. In this paper, a Gaussian mixture model charactizing the interstation travel speed of hybrid BRT under a Bayesian framework is established. The parameters of the model are inferred using the Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach (RJMCMC), including the number of model components and the weight, mean and variance of each component. Then the model is applied to Guangzhou BRT, a kind of hybrid BRT. From the results, it can be observed that the model can very effectively describe the heterogeneous speed data among different inter-stations, and provide richer information usually not available from the traditional models, and the model also produces an excellent fit to each multimodal speed distribution curve of the interstations. The causes of different speed distribution can be identified through investigating the Internet map of GBRT, they are big road traffic and long traffic lights respectively, which always contribute to a main road crossing. So, the BRT lane should be elevated through the main road to decrease the complexity of the running state.

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来源
《智能城市应用》 |2019年第5期|P.33-45|共13页
作者
Ji-hua Hu; Jia-xian Liang;
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作者单位

[1]Public Labs Center Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510006 China;

[2]Research Centre of Intelligent Transportation System School of Engineering Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510006 China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类自动化技术、计算机技术;
关键词
bayesian; hybrid BRT; RJMCMC; interstation travel speed; gaussian mixture model;

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1. Time-series gas prediction model using LS-SVR within a Bayesian framework [J] . Qiao Meiying ,Ma Xiaoping ,Lan ianyi . 矿业科学技术 . 2011,第001期
2. 快速公交(Bus Rapid Transit)系统经济效益估算方法研究 [C] . 伍速锋 ,杨晓光 . 第六届交通运输领域国际学术会议 . 2006
3. Sustainability of the Bus Rapid Transit System in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania [A] . 腓利门 . 2012

Modeling Interstation Travel Speed of Hybrid Bus Rapid Transit within A Bayesian Framework

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