由于终端设备中大量气象敏感型负荷的投入,负荷随气象因素变化的特征越来越显著.以复杂度低、解释能力强的虚拟交互回归预测模型为基础,将人们的用电行为及气象中的温度与相对湿度变量引入到模型中,并充分考虑其相互间的交叉效应,深度挖掘各时间点的影响因素与负荷间的动态映射关系.在用电行为方面,引入虚拟变量来量化负荷在年、周、日的周期性变化特征,且考虑节假日负荷的特殊性并做相应的量化处理;在温度方面,采用三次函数模型描述负荷与温度的关系并提出了温度的近因效应,将滞后时温度信息引入模型;在相对湿度方面,采用变量的二次函数模型,提出了新的模型构建方法.最后,以某地区2006—2010年实际负荷为例进行了验证,结果表明所提方法可以较准确地反映各种日期类型下的负荷变化,适用于气象因素变化不大的地市级电网的负荷预测.%Due to massive weather sensitive load in terminal equipment, the features of load changing with meteorological factors be-come more and more significant.Based on the virtual dummy regression forecasting model which has low complexity and strong ability to explain, the factors of human power consuming behavior, temperature and relative humidity and their across effects are introduced to the model.The dynamic mapping relationship between load and these factors is deeply mined.In terms of human power consuming behavior, dummy variables are introduced to describe the load changing rule in year, week and day.Load specificity of holidays is considered and quantified to improve the practicability of the model.In terms of temperature, cubic function model is used to describe the relationship of load and temperature, and the recency effect of temperature is put forward that means the lag hourly temperature in-formation is introduced to the model.In terms of relative humidity, a new modeling method is put forward with quadratic function model of variables.At last, the proposed model is validated by actual historical data from 2006 to 2010 in a certain area.The predic-tion results show that the proposed model can reflect the load changing trend in various date types, the method is suitable for municipal power grids with little change in meteorological factors.
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