To reduce the risk of collision in the multi-satellite launch missions,theoretical error is added into the nominal separating force between satellites and launch vehicle,and the attitude control force model based on the actual flight data is included during orbit propagation in this paper.Finally the multiple apply force model is established to forecast the minimum distance between space objects in the multi-satellite launch mission accurately,including the influence of separating force error,attitude control force and orbit perturbation.Furthermore,the prediction method has been validated during the actual flight mission to prejudge the collision risk and it provides a foundation for the flight safety and the launch accomplishment.%针对一箭多星发射中的多颗卫星碰撞风险问题,文章在标称星箭分离力基础上叠加分离力的理论误差,基于在轨飞行数据得到姿态控制作用力,并加入到轨道预报模型中,提出了综合分离力误差、姿态控制作用力及轨道摄动影响的多重作用力分析模型,可实现对一箭多星发射条件下多个空间物体的最小飞行间距的预报.在工程任务中,采用该方法可以有效识别出卫星发生碰撞的风险,为确保卫星的飞行安全和发射任务的圆满完成奠定基础.
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