针对风电功率和分时电价(TOU)下用户响应行为的双重不确定性对电网调度运行的影响,提出了基于模糊随机机会约束目标规划(FRCCGP)和优先目标规划(PGP)结合,求解计及预测误差模糊随机性的双层调度模型.首先,深入研究了电网调度运行的不确定因素,利用模糊随机理论对预测误差的模糊随机性进行建模.然后,引入机会约束目标规划构建表征系统备用不足风险的偏差量指标,利用优先目标规划建立双层调度模型,对安全性目标和经济性目标设立明确的等级顺序.最后,利用算例验证模型的有效性,结果表明双层调度模型在保证安全性的基础上实现了经济最优性.%The double uncertainty of wind power output and demand response of time of use (TOU) bring great difficulty to the system operation scheduling. Based on the combination of fuzzy random chance constrained goal programming (FRCCGP) and preemptive goal programming (PGP), the paper established the bi-level dispatch model considering fuzziness and randomness of the prediction error. First of all, the paper deeply studied the uncertain factors of system operation and model the double uncertainty of the prediction error. In addition, the chance constrained goal programming was introduced to form the reserve deviation indexes. The bi-level model based on PGP identified the rigorous priority level of the safety goals and the economic goals. Finally, the validity of the model was verified with case studies and results showed that the bi-level model could optimize the operation economy on the basic of meeting the security demand.
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