由于水稻种植的效益较高,促使有条件地区旱改水现象突出.水田面积增长迅速,导致部分地区人地用水矛盾突出,如何确定一地区水田面积极限值,保证人地用水和谐发展是亟待解决的问题.该文以黑龙江省通河县为研究区,基于GIS技术、考虑农业生态承载力各自然约束条件,应用定量化模型计算通河县的许可最大水田面积,并以许可转换度来表征区域旱地改水田的极限比例.结果表明:通河县旱地改水田许可转换度应控制在0.45以下,即水田面积控制在79311.8 hm2以内,可以保证通河县人地用水的和谐发展.且以2008年农业种植结构数据为基础,计算出通河县旱地改水田的潜力约为2万hm2,目前旱改水的潜力还较大.研究结果可为黑龙江省通河县农业种植结构调整提供量化依据,保证通河县及类似地区农业可持续发展.%It is prominent phenomenon of the conversion of dryland to paddy in the conditional areas because of high benefit on rice cultivation. The areas where the paddy field grows rapidly can lead to the contradiction between human and land. How to determine the maximum area of paddy field and to guarantee the harmonious development between human and land is a urgent problem to be solved. Based on the technology of GIS, taking Tonghe county, Heilogjiang province as research area, considering the nature constraints of the agricultural ecological bearing capacity, this paper calculated the maximum paddy area of permission in Tonghe county by quantified model. The results showed that the permission conversion degree should be controlled less than 0.45, that is, the paddy field area should be controlled within 79311.8 hm2. This limit can guarantee the harmonious development between human and land in Tonghe county. Based on the agricultural circumstances of 2008, the area of dryland converting to paddy field in Tonghe county is about 20 000 hm2 in the future and there is a big potential of dry land to paddy field. The research can provide a quantitative basis for agricultural planting structure adjustment in Tonghe county, Heilongjiang province and ensure the sustainable development of agriculture in Tonghe county and the similar regions.
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