对大宝山铜铁矿开采过程中采区岩层的变形进行了监测,提出矿床开采岩层释放能量的分析方法.对岩层释放能量的时间序列重构相空间,得出岩层释放能量的动力系统饱和嵌入维数为4,关系维数为1.212 8,用混沌理论揭示岩层释放能量在相空间中的相点距离演变规律.用灰色理论建立岩层释放能量的预测模型,最大预测误差在6.7％以内,实现采区岩层释放能量的准确预测.研究表明,岩层释放能量表现出混沌特性,对其相空间进行重构后,岩层释放能量的细微变化特征被放大,其内在规律能得到充分展示,并以此建立矿床开采岩层释放能量的安全预警系统,为矿山安全采矿提供了技术保障.%The strata deformation in mining area was monitored in Dabaoshan copper-iron mine,and an analytical method of strata energy release was put forward.On the basis of chaotic theory,by reconstructing the phase space for time series data of strata energy release,the saturated embedding dimension and the correlation dimension of the dynamic system were obtained to be 4 and 1.212 8,respectively,and the evolution laws of distances between phase points of strata energy release in the phase space were revealed.With grey theory,a prediction model of strata energy release was set up,the maximum error of which was less than 6.7％.The results show that there are chaotic characters in strata energy release during mining; after reconstructing phase space,the subtle changing characteristics of energy release can be magnified,and the internal rules can be fully demonstrated.According to the laws,a warning svstem for strata stability in mining area was established to provide a technical safeguard for safe mining.
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