In order to fully understand the causes of the formation of flight conflict incidents in UAV formation at present and focus on the accurate prediction of the probability of occurrence of the accidents, firstly, this paper analyzes the causes and summarize the basic events leading to them, calculates the minimum cut set of the fault tree model and the structural importance of each basic event; secondly, takes value for the probability of the flight conflict accident of UAV formation to get the probability importance degree of the basic event;points out the impact of occurrence probability of basic event on the occurrence probability the top event, to provide reliable advice for future UAV flight safety improvement.%为充分了解当前无人机编队飞行冲突事故征候的成因,并对其发生原因进行有重点的预防和对事件发生概率的精确预测,首先对其原因进行分析;总结导致其发生的基本事件,计算事故树模型的最小割集和各个基本事件的结构重要度;其次对无人机编队飞行冲突事故征候的发生概率进行取值,得出基本事件的概率重要度,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响,为以后无人机编队飞行安全性能的提高提供可靠建议.
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