To analyze uncertain effects of risk factors on construction progress schedule, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to evaluate risk factors of each activity and identify its dominant risk factor. Then distribution type of each activity duration is accordingly determined, which improves the traditional PERT network activity time estimation method. On this basis we apply Monte Carlo method to analyze the distribution of the project period and schedule risk. In the end, the simulation result of a simple rock grouting project is carried out. The results shows that hypothesis of traditional PERT network duration obeys normal distribution is in line with reality in general. However, there are some differences between traditional PERT risk evaluation result with that of the new method which considers activity's dominant risk factor.%针对风险因素给施工进度计划带来的不确定影响，对项目活动的风险因素进行了模糊综合评价，确定了主导风险因素，明确了活动时间的概率分布，改进了传统PERT网络活动时间的估计方法。在此基础上，对PERT网络工期分布及进度风险进行了蒙特卡罗仿真模拟。通过某岩石溶注浆工程的实例验证结果表明，经典PERT网络工期的正态分布假设基本符合工程实际，进度风险估计与考虑了主导风险因素的估计存在一定偏差。
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