The article uses the methods of strain strength ratio and the least square collocation to handle data of short leveling across fault in the area of north-south seismic zone from 1988~2007. In combination with some seismic examples in this area, patterns of strain strength ratio which change continuously in time-space domain are analyzed and summarized. The method which predicts earthquake in middle and short time is given. Then in combination with Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquack, dynamic evolution process in the area of Longmenshan fault is analyzed.%本文利用应变强度比和最小二乘配置方法,处理了自1988年~2007年近20年南北地震带跨断层短水准数据资料,结合本区相关震例,分析和总结了应变强度比时空动态图像的中长期预报方法.结合2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震着重分析了龙门山断裂带及其附近区域形变场的动态演化过程.
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