为解决传统评价方法在处理某些指标时不能同时反映其模糊性和随机性及在数据融合时无法兼顾数据之间冲突关系的缺陷，提出基于云的定性与定量互换模型和D-S证据理论的冲突证据合成方法的综合评价方法。综合考虑煤的自燃倾向性、持续漏风供氧条件和聚热散热条件，建立采空区自然发火评价指标体系，对梁家煤矿4110采空区煤炭自然发火危险性进行评价。研究结果表明，基于云模型和D-S理论的煤炭自然发火危险性评价方法是可行的，而且能够克服上述缺陷，更具科学性和合理性。%Aimed at a scientific method of risk evaluation caused by coal spontaneous combustion, a strategy which is of significance for improving colliery safety production level and reducing potential accidents, this paper draws on the comprehensive consideration of the factors influencing coal spontaneous combustion and develops evaluation index system, such as coal spontaneous combustion tendency, continuous air supply, heat accumulation, and heat dissipation conditions. The paper proposes an alternative solution to conventional evaluation system which fails in the treatment of the fuzziness and the randomness in some indicators and the conflict between them, features a comprehensive evaluation method distinguished by qualitative and quantitative mutual transfer model based on cloud model and combination of conflictive evidences in D-S evidence theory. The results derived from 4110 goaf in Liangjia coal mine verify that the method operates in a scientific and effective way.
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