利用年际变动指数、地理集中指数对新疆入境旅游时空演变特征进行定量分析。研究表明：入境旅游呈现人数波动式增长，入境游客中外国游客占主导；入境旅游年际变化较大，客源市场不稳定。利用灰色系统模型GM (1，1)模型对新疆未来五年入境旅游指标进行预测，以期为新疆旅游管理部门和旅游企业提供参考。%This paper uses the interannual variation index and geographic concentration index to conduct quantitative analysis of the space evolution characteristics of Xinjiang inbound tourism. Research shows that: the number of inbound tourism shows fluctuant growth, and the foreign tourists is main part of inbound tourists;the interannual variation is big and the tourist market is instable. By using the grey system model GM (1, 1), the inbound tourism indicators in Xinjiang over the next five years are forecasted in order to provide reference for the Xinjiang Department of tourism management and tourism enterprises.
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