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Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

         
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摘要

This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM), which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

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  • 来源
    《水科学与水工程》 |2011年第3期|345-355|共11页
  • 作者

    Li-ping WANG; Yan-ke ZHANG; Chang-ming JI; Ji-qing LI;

  • 作者单位

    Renewable Energy School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P. R. China;

    Renewable Energy School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P. R. China;

    Renewable Energy School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P. R. China;

    Renewable Energy School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P. R. China;

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