Daily hydro meteorology data in 1962-2008 were used in Jihe watershed in the gullied rolling loess area, spatial and attributive database were set up based on GIS to simulate the runoff changes by using SWAT model. The results show that, with regard to calibration and validation of annual and monthly runoff, the simulated and observed values keep accordant trends but overall the former presented bigger values. Relative error Re, determination coefficient R2, and efficiency coefficient Ens in annul calibration period are 15. 3%, 0. 638 and 0. 720 respectively, while they are 26. 0%, 0. 569 and 0. 511 respectively in validation period, so it is obvious that the performance in validation period is worse than that in calibration period. Monthly runoff simulation presents the similar simulated results and it is found that monthly simulation performs are not better than that of the annul simulation.%采用黄土丘陵沟壑区耤河流域1962—2008年逐日水文气象数据,基于GIS空间分析功能建立空间和属性数据库,利用SWAT模型对该流域过去47 a的径流变化过程进行了模拟与验证。结果表明：对于年、月尺度径流的校准与验证,模拟值和实测值变化趋势保持一致,但模拟值总体上均偏大；校准期年均流量模拟值的相对误差、与实测值的复相关系数、效率系数分别为15.3%、0.638、0.720,验证期分别为26.0%、0.569、0.511,可见验证期的模拟效果不如校准期的；月均流量也有类似的模拟效果,但不如年均流量模拟效果好。
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