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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>British Medical Journal >Seropositivity for HIV and the development of AIDS or AIDS related condition: three year follow up of the San Francisco General Hospital cohort
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Seropositivity for HIV and the development of AIDS or AIDS related condition: three year follow up of the San Francisco General Hospital cohort

机译：HIV的血清阳性与AIDS或AIDS相关疾病的发展：旧金山总医院队列的三年随访

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The three year actuarial progression rate to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a cohort of men in San Francisco who were seropositive for the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) was 22%. An additional 26 (19%) developed AIDS related conditions. β2 Microglobulin concentration, packed cell volume, HIV p24 antigenaemia, and the proportion and number of T4 lymphocytes each independently predicted progression to AIDS. β2 Microglobulin was the most powerful predictor. The 111 subjects tested who were normal by all predictors (40%) had a three year progression rate of 7%, and the 68 subjects who were abnormal by two or more predictors (24%) had a progression rate of 57%. Two thirds of all men who progressed to AIDS were in the last group. The median T4 lymphocyte count in subjects who did not progress to AIDS fell from 626 × 106 to 327 × 106/1. HIV p24 antigenaemia developed in 7% of the subjects per year. The proportion who were abnormal by two or more predictive variables rose to 41%. At three years an estimated two thirds of the seropositive subjects showed clinical AIDS, an AIDS related condition, or laboratory results that were highly predictive of AIDS.It is concluded from the observed rates and the distribution of predictive variables at three years that half of the men who were seropositive for HIV will develop AIDS by six years after the start of the study, and three quarters will develop AIDS or an AIDS related condition.
机译：在旧金山，一群对人免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）呈血清反应阳性的男性，其获得性免疫缺陷综合症（AIDS）的三年精算进展率为22％。另有26名（19％）患上了与艾滋病相关的疾病。 β2微球蛋白浓度，细胞堆积量，HIV p24抗原血症以及T4淋巴细胞的比例和数量各自独立地预测了艾滋病的发展。 β2微球蛋白是最有效的预测因子。在所有预测变量均正常的被测试的111位受试者中（40％）的三年进展率为7％，在两个或更多个预测变量异常的68位受试者中（24％）的进展率为57％。患艾滋病的男性中有三分之二属于最后一组。未发展为艾滋病的受试者的T4淋巴细胞中位数从626×10 6 降至327×10 6 / 1。每年有7％的受试者患HIV p24抗原血症。通过两个或多个预测变量异常的比例上升至41％。三年后，估计有三分之二的血清反应阳性受试者显示临床AIDS，与AIDS相关的疾病或实验室结果可高度预测AIDS。根据观察到的速率和三年中预测变量的分布得出结论，一半的在研究开始后的6年内，对HIV呈血清反应阳性的男性将发展为AIDS，四分之三将发展为AIDS或与AIDS相关的疾病。

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