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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District Sri Lanka
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A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District Sri Lanka

机译：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和天气对斯里兰卡Kalutara区登革热的时间影响的空间分层分析

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Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka.
机译：登革热是斯里兰卡的主要公共卫生负担。卡卢特勒（Kalutara）是受影响最严重的地区之一。了解登革热的驱动因素对于控制和预防疾病传播至关重要。这项研究的重点是在Kalutara区的10个卫生部（MOH）部门量化天气变化对登革热发病率的影响。检索并分析了2009年至2013年在Kalutara的10个卫生部划分的每周天气变量和登革热通报数据。分布式滞后非线性模型和层次分析法用于估计天气和登革热之间的分区特定关系和总体关系。我们结合了长达12周的延迟时间，并根据Akaike信息准则对模型进行了评估。观察到不同地理位置之间降雨的一致暴露-反应模式，表明登革热的相对风险随着每周降雨量增加50毫米而增加。每周降雨量超过300毫米之后，与登革热风险的最强关联集中在6至10周左右。随着温度的升高，登革热的总体相对风险从4周的滞后开始稳定增长。类似地，我们发现大洋Niño指数与斯里兰卡地区的天气模式与登革热之间有很强的联系，从而证实了这些关系。降雨和温度的部分影响可以看作是海洋Niño指数因果关系的中介，这可能会使预警信号的交货时间更长。我们的发现描述了天气，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与斯里兰卡的登革热之间有很强的联系。

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