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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Advancing our Understanding of Heat Wave Criteria and Associated Health Impacts to Improve Heat Wave Alerts in Developing Country Settings
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Advancing our Understanding of Heat Wave Criteria and Associated Health Impacts to Improve Heat Wave Alerts in Developing Country Settings

机译：增进我们对热浪标准和相关健康影响的理解以改善发展中国家环境中的热浪警报

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Health effects of heat waves with high baseline temperatures in areas such as India remain a critical research gap. In these regions, extreme temperatures may affect the underlying population’s adaptive capacity; heat wave alerts should be optimized to avoid continuous high alert status and enhance constrained resources, especially under a changing climate. Data from registrars and meteorological departments were collected for four communities in Northwestern India. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to obtain the relative risk of mortality and number of attributable deaths (i.e., absolute risk which incorporates the number of heat wave days) under a variety of heat wave definitions (n = 13) incorporating duration and intensity. Heat waves’ timing in season was also assessed for potential effect modification. Relative risk of heat waves (risk of mortality comparing heat wave days to matched non-heat wave days) varied by heat wave definition and ranged from 1.28 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.11–1.46] in Churu (utilizing the 95th percentile of temperature for at least two consecutive days) to 1.03 [95% CI: 0.87–1.23] in Idar and Himmatnagar (utilizing the 95th percentile of temperature for at least four consecutive days). The data trended towards a higher risk for heat waves later in the season. Some heat wave definitions displayed similar attributable mortalities despite differences in the number of identified heat wave days. These findings provide opportunities to assess the “efficiency” (or number of days versus potential attributable health impacts) associated with alternative heat wave definitions. Findings on both effect modification and trade-offs between number of days identified as “heat wave” versus health effects provide tools for policy makers to determine the most important criteria for defining thresholds to trigger heat wave alerts.
机译：在印度等地区，基线温度高的热波对健康的影响仍然是一个重要的研究空白。在这些地区，极端温度可能会影响底层人口的适应能力；应该优化热浪警报，以避免持续的高度警报状态并增加资源受限，尤其是在气候变化的情况下。收集了来自印度西北部四个社区的注册服务商和气象部门的数据。倾向得分匹配（PSM）用于获得在各种持续时间和强度下的各种热浪定义（n = 13）下的相对死亡风险和可归因的死亡人数（即，包括热浪天数的绝对风险）。 。还评估了热浪季节的时机，以潜在地改善效果。热浪的相对风险（将热浪天数与匹配的非热浪天数相比的死亡风险）因热浪定义而异，在Churu中为1.28 [95％置信区间：1.11–1.46]（利用温度的95％百分数） （至少连续两天）达到Idar和Himmatnagar的1.03 [95％CI：0.87-1.23]（至少连续四天利用温度的95％百分位数）。该数据表明，本季晚些时候发生热浪的风险更高。尽管确定的热浪天数有所不同，但一些热浪定义仍显示出相似的归因死亡率。这些发现为评估与替代热浪定义相关的“效率”（或天数与潜在归因于健康的影响）提供了机会。有关影响修改和确定为“热浪”与健康影响的天数之间权衡取舍的结果，为政策制定者提供了确定最重要的标准以定义触发热浪警报的阈值的工具。

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