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Spatiotemporal Transmission Patterns and Determinants of Dengue Fever: A Case Study of Guangzhou China

机译:登革热的时空传播模式和决定因素:以中国广州为例

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摘要

Dengue fever is one of the most common vector-borne diseases in the world and is mainly affected by the interaction of meteorological, human and land-use factors. This study aims to identify the impact of meteorological, human and land-use factors on dengue fever cases, involving the interplay between multiple factors. The analyses identified the statistically significant determinants affecting the transmission of dengue fever, employing cross-correlation analysis and the geo-detector model. This study was conducted in Guangzhou, China, using the data of confirmed cases of dengue fever, daily meteorological records, population density distribution and land-use distribution. The findings highlighted that the dengue fever hotspots were mainly distributed in the old city center of Guangzhou and were significantly shaped by meteorological, land-use and human factors. Meteorological factors including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity were correlated with the transmission of dengue fever. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity presented a statistically significant positive correlation with dengue fever cases, while atmospheric pressure presented statistically significant negative correlation. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity have lag effects on the transmission of dengue fever. The population, community age, subway network density, road network density and ponds presented a statistically significant positive correlation with the number of dengue fever cases, and the interaction among land-use and human factors could enhance dengue fever transmission. The ponds were the most important interaction factors, which might strengthen the influence of other factors on dengue fever transmission. Our findings have implications for pre-emptive dengue fever control.
机译:登革热是世界上最常见的媒介传播疾病之一,主要受到气象,人类和土地利用因素相互作用的影响。本研究旨在确定气象,人类和土地利用因素对登革热病例的影响,其中涉及多种因素之间的相互作用。分析使用互相关分析和地理探测器模型,确定了影响登革热传播的统计学上重要的决定因素。这项研究在中国广州进行,使用了确诊的登革热病例数据,每日气象记录,人口密度分布和土地利用分布。调查结果突显出登革热热点地区主要分布在广州老城区,并且受到气象,土地利用和人为因素的明显影响。登革热的传播与最低温度,最高温度,大气压和相对湿度等气象因素有关。最低温度,最高温度和相对湿度与登革热病例呈统计显着正相关,而大气压力呈统计显着负相关。最低温度,最高温度,大气压力和湿度对登革热的传播有滞后作用。人口,社区年龄,地铁网络密度,道路网络密度和池塘与登革热病例数呈统计学显着正相关,土地利用与人为因素之间的相互作用可增强登革热的传播。池塘是最重要的相互作用因素,可能会增强其他因素对登革热传播的影响。我们的发现对先发性登革热控制有影响。

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