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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Heredity >Inferring contemporary dispersal processes in plant metapopulations: comparison of direct and indirect estimates of dispersal for the annual species Crepis sancta
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Inferring contemporary dispersal processes in plant metapopulations: comparison of direct and indirect estimates of dispersal for the annual species Crepis sancta

机译：推断植物种群中的当代传播过程：比较一年生物种Crepis sancta的直接和间接传播估计

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Analyzing population dynamics in changing habitats is a prerequisite for population dynamics forecasting. The recent development of metapopulation modeling allows the estimation of dispersal kernels based on the colonization pattern but the accuracy of these estimates compared with direct estimates of the seed dispersal kernel has rarely been assessed. In this study, we used recent genetic methods based on parentage analysis (spatially explicit mating models) to estimate seed and pollen dispersal kernels as well as seed and pollen immigration in fragmented urban populations of the plant species Crepis sancta with contrasting patch dynamics. Using two independent networks, we documented substantial seed immigration and a highly restricted dispersal kernel. Moreover, immigration heterogeneity among networks was consistent with previously reported metapopulation dynamics, showing that colonization was mainly due to external colonization in the first network (propagule rain) and local colonization in the second network. We concluded that the differences in urban patch dynamics are mainly due to seed immigration heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of external population source in the spatio-temporal dynamics of plants in a fragmented landscape. The results show that indirect and direct methods were qualitatively consistent, providing a proper interpretation of indirect estimates. This study provides attempts to link genetic and demographic methods and show that patch occupancy models may provide simple methods for analyzing population dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes in the context of global change.
机译：分析不断变化的栖息地中的种群动态是预测种群动态的前提。近来，随着种群分布模型的发展，可以基于定殖模式对散布粒进行估算，但是与种子散布粒的直接估算相比，这些估算的准确性很少得到评估。在这项研究中，我们使用了基于亲缘关系分析（空间明确的交配模型）的最新遗传方法来估计种子和花粉的散布内核，以及散乱的城市物种Crepis sancta的零散种群中的种子和花粉迁移，而斑块动态却相反。使用两个独立的网络，我们记录了大量的种子迁移和高度受限的分散核。此外，网络之间的移民异质性与先前报道的代谢种群动态一致，表明定殖主要是由于第一个网络中的外部定殖（繁殖性降雨）和第二个网络中的局部定殖。我们得出的结论是，城市斑块动态的差异主要是由于种子迁移异质性所致，这突显了外部人口来源在破碎景观中植物时空动态中的重要性。结果表明，间接和直接方法在质量上是一致的，为间接估计提供了正确的解释。这项研究提供了将遗传学和人口学方法联系起来的尝试，并表明斑块占用模型可以为分析全球变化背景下异质景观中的种群动态提供简单的方法。

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