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An assessment of the reliability of quantitative genetics estimates in study systems with high rate of extra-pair reproduction and low recruitment

机译：高配对外繁殖率和低招募率的研究系统中定量遗传学估计值的可靠性评估

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Quantitative genetics approaches, and particularly animal models, are widely used to assess the genetic (co)variance of key fitness related traits and infer adaptive potential of wild populations. Despite the importance of precision and accuracy of genetic variance estimates and their potential sensitivity to various ecological and population specific factors, their reliability is rarely tested explicitly. Here, we used simulations and empirical data collected from an 11-year study on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), a species showing a high rate of extra-pair paternity and a low recruitment rate, to assess the importance of identity errors, structure and size of the pedigree on quantitative genetic estimates in our dataset. Our simulations revealed an important lack of precision in heritability and genetic-correlation estimates for most traits, a low power to detect significant effects and important identifiability problems. We also observed a large bias in heritability estimates when using the social pedigree instead of the genetic one (deflated heritabilities) or when not accounting for an important cause of resemblance among individuals (for example, permanent environment or brood effect) in model parameterizations for some traits (inflated heritabilities). We discuss the causes underlying the low reliability observed here and why they are also likely to occur in other study systems. Altogether, our results re-emphasize the difficulties of generalizing quantitative genetic estimates reliably from one study system to another and the importance of reporting simulation analyses to evaluate these important issues.
机译：定量遗传学方法，尤其是动物模型，被广泛用于评估与健身相关的关键性状的遗传（共）变异，并推断野生种群的适应潜力。尽管遗传方差估计的准确性和准确性非常重要，并且它们对各种生态和种群特定因素的潜在敏感性也很重要，但很少对其可靠性进行明确测试。在这里，我们使用了从一项为期11年的树燕子（Tachycineta bicolor）研究中获得的模拟和经验数据，该树燕子具有较高的成对父系亲缘率和较低的招聘率，以评估身份错误，结构和我们数据集中定量遗传估计的血统书大小。我们的模拟结果表明，大多数性状的遗传力和遗传相关性估计均缺乏精确度，发现重要效应的能力低下，并且存在重要的可识别性问题。当使用社会谱系代替遗传谱系（放气的遗传力）或在某些模型参数化中不考虑个体之间相似的重要原因（例如，永久性环境或育雏效应）时，我们还观察到遗传力估计存在很大偏差。特质（遗传力过高）。我们讨论了这里观察到的可靠性低的根本原因，以及为什么它们也可能在其他研究系统中发生。总之，我们的结果再次强调了将定量遗传估计可靠地从一种研究系统推广到另一种研究系统的困难，以及报告模拟分析以评估这些重要问题的重要性。

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