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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Frontiers in Nutrition >Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak
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Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

机译：全球磷肥市场和国家政策：重新审视2008年价格高峰的案例研究

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The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.
机译：商品市场的超周期和粮食价格危机与普遍的粮食不安全和阿拉伯之春有关。大量因素被认为是商品市场过度波动的罪魁祸首。然而，就肥料而言，仍然缺乏市场驱动因素的明确归因，无法解释极端价格事件的出现。在本文中，我们以磷酸二铵（DAP）为基础，对2008年全球磷肥市场的价格上涨进行了定量评估。我们发现，印度是全球最大的磷肥和磷矿石进口国，其肥料市场政策实际上是导致全球价格飙升的主要因素。在价格翻番的同时，印度在2008年将P肥料的进口量增加了一倍。对与2008年磷肥市场价格上涨相关的一系列因素的分析，使我们发现了价格上涨的放大因素和触发机制。我们发现，一方面，由于肥料供应商采取了保护性贸易措施，价格上涨被放大，导致全球磷肥出口下降了19％。另一方面，印度的肥料补贴计划导致农民没有调整对肥料的需求。触发机制似乎是印度P肥料的生产中断，导致DAP的额外进口需求量约占全球年度供应量的20％。主要结论是，这三个因素共同导致了价格飙升，这凸显了需要在国家和国际层面上事前改善肥料市场监管的必要性。

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