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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>European Journal of Population = Revue Europenne de Dmographie >Location–Scale Models in Demography: A Useful Re-parameterization of Mortality Models
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Location–Scale Models in Demography: A Useful Re-parameterization of Mortality Models

机译：人口统计学中的位置比例模型：死亡率模型的有用重新参数化

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摘要

Several parametric mortality models have been proposed to describe the age pattern of mortality since Gompertz introduced his “law of mortality” almost two centuries ago. However, very few attempts have been made to reconcile most of these models within a single framework. In this article, we show that many mortality models used in the demographic and actuarial literature can be re-parameterized in terms of a general and flexible family of models, the family of location–scale (LS) models. These models are characterized by two parameters that have a direct demographic interpretation: the location and scale parameters, which capture the shifting and compression dynamics of mortality changes, respectively. Re-parameterizing a model in terms of the LS family has several advantages over its classic formulation. In addition to aiding parameter interpretability and comparability, the statistical estimation of the LS parameters is facilitated due to their significantly lower correlation. The latter, in turn, further improves parameter interpretability and reduces estimation bias. We show the advantages of the LS family over the typical parameterization of mortality models with two illustrations using the Human Mortality Database.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-018-9497-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
机译：自从Gompertz在大约两个世纪前提出“死亡率定律”以来，已经提出了几种参数化死亡率模型来描述死亡率的年龄模式。但是，很少有人尝试在单个框架内协调大多数这些模型。在本文中，我们表明，人口统计学和精算学文献中使用的许多死亡率模型可以通过通用的灵活模型系列（位置比例模型）重新参数化。这些模型的特征在于具有直接人口统计学解释的两个参数：位置和比例参数，分别捕获死亡率变化的移动和压缩动态。相对于经典系列，根据LS系列重新参数化模型具有多个优势。除了有助于参数的可解释性和可比性之外，由于LS参数的显着较低的相关性，因此还可以简化LS参数的统计估计。后者反过来进一步提高了参数的可解释性并减少了估计偏差。我们使用人类死亡率数据库通过两个插图展示了LS系列相对于典型的死亡率模型参数化的优势。电子补充材料本文的在线版本（10.1007 / s10680-018-9497-x）包含补充材料给授权用户。

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