【2h】

Sustainability in single-species population models

机译:单物种种群模型中的可持续性

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摘要

In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods.The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, FMSY, which results in MSY, and a higher value, Fext, for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and Fext, there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achieving sustainability is the control of fishing mortality.The neoclassical view of sustainability, developed in the 1980s, involved population models with depensation and stochasticity. This viewpoint is in accord with the perception that a population at a low level is susceptible to collapse or to a lack of rebuilding regardless of fishing. Sustainability occurs in a more restricted range from that in the classical view and includes an abundance threshold. A variety of studies has suggested that fishing mortality should not let a population drop below a threshold at 10–20% of carrying capacity.The modern view of sustainability in the 1990s moves further in the direction of precaution. The fishing mortality limit is the former target of FMSY (or some proxy), and the target fishing mortality is set lower. This viewpoint further reduces the range of permissible fishing mortalities and resultant desired population sizes. The objective has shifted from optimizing long-term catch to preserving spawning biomass and egg production for the future. The use of discount rates in objective functions involving catch is not a suitable alternative to protecting reproductive value.As we move into the post-modern time period, new definitions of sustainability will attempt to incorporate the economic and social aspects of fisheries and/or ecosystem and habitat requirements. These definitions now involve ‘warm and fuzzy’ notions (healthy ecosystems and fishing communities, the needs of future generations, diverse fish communities) and value judgements of desired outcomes. Additional work is needed to make these definitions operational and to specify quantitative objectives to be achieved. In addition, multiple objectives may be incompatible, so trade-offs in what constitutes sustainability must be made. The advances made under the single-species approach should not be abandoned in the post-modern era, but rather enhanced and combined with new approaches in the multi-species and economic realms.
机译:在本文中,我们回顾了在生命史的某个阶段具有密度依赖性的单一物种,年龄结构的鱼类种群的可持续性概念。我们通过四个时期来追踪可持续性观点的发展.1970年及更早时流行的可持续性经典观点是从确定性生产模型发展而来的,在确定性生产模型中,均衡丰度或生物量是捕捞死亡率的函数。当没有捕捞死亡率时,人口就可以达到其承载能力的平衡。我们表明,承载力是生殖和死亡过程的结果,并且不是固定的常数,除非这些过程是恒定的。通常存在捕捞死亡率FMSY,导致MSY,而渔获死亡率更高,即Fext,最终导致种群灭绝。对于介于0和Fext之间的每个F,都有一个相应的可持续人口。从这个角度来看,实现可持续性的主要手段是控制捕捞死亡率.1980年代发展起来的新古典主义可持续性观点涉及到具有种群分布和随机性的种群模型。这种观点与以下观点相一致:无论捕鱼情况如何,处于低水平的人口都容易崩溃或缺乏重建。与传统观点相比,可持续性出现在更有限的范围内,并且包括丰度阈值。各种各样的研究表明,捕捞死亡率不应该使人口下降到承载能力的10%至20%的阈值以下。1990年代的现代可持续性观点进一步朝着预防的方向发展。捕捞死亡率的上限是FMSY(或某些替代品)的先前目标,而捕捞死亡率的目标则设定得较低。这种观点进一步减少了允许捕捞死亡率的范围以及由此产生的所需种群规模。目标已从优化长期捕捞转向为将来保留产卵生物量和产蛋量。在涉及捕捞的目标函数中使用折现率不是保护繁殖价值的合适替代方法。随着我们进入后现代时期,可持续性的新定义将尝试纳入渔业和/或生态系统的经济和社会方面和栖息地要求。这些定义现在涉及“温暖而模糊的”概念(健康的生态系统和捕捞社区,后代的需求,多样化的鱼类社区)以及对预期成果的价值判断。要使这些定义可行并指定要实现的量化目标,还需要进行额外的工作。此外,多个目标可能不兼容,因此必须在构成可持续性的方面进行权衡。在后现代时代,不应放弃采用单一物种方法取得的进步,而应将其与多物种和经济领域中的新方法加以加强和结合。

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