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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences >Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?
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Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

机译：对气候的非线性开花响应：物种是否正在接近物候变化的极限？

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Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions.
机译：许多高山和亚高山植物物种都表现出与早期融雪有关的物候学进步。尽管某些植物物种的物候特性未超过融雪阈值日期，但在植物群落中此类阈值物候响应的普遍性尚不清楚。因此，我们使用来自雪域环境中植物群落的两个长期数据集，研究了气候对开花物候响应（线性与非线性）的形状：美国哥德（1974-2011）和格陵兰扎肯贝格（1996-2011） 。对于总共64个物种，我们确定了线性回归模型还是非线性回归模型可以最好地解释开花物候随温度升高和融雪日期的增加而发生的年际变化。最常见的非线性趋势是，随着融雪的进行，物种更早开花，而融雪早期则没有变化或变化的速度较慢（平均占20％）。相比之下，相对于凉爽的温度，某些物种在最暖的温度下以更快的速度开花（平均为5％）。因此，某些物种似乎正在响应融雪而不是温度的物候变化极限。此类物候阈值可能是开花的最低春季光周期提示的结果，或者是相对于气候条件变化的开花时间适应性变化速率降低的结果。

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