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An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics

机译：对处于危险中的人口进行小区域人口统计估计的准确性及其对流行率统计的影响的评估

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Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered.
机译：对危险人群的人口统计学估计通常是流行病学研究和公共卫生监测工作的基础。尽管它们在流行病学和公共卫生实践中具有至关重要的作用，但以前很少有人关注评估与此类估计有关的误差的幅度或流行病学统计学对这些影响的敏感性。尽管有众所周知的观察，即人口统计学估计的准确性会随着要估计的人口规模的减少而下降，但人口统计学家仍然面临着在越来越小的地理尺度上为日益细化的人口特征做出估计的压力。不幸的是，目前在文献中几乎没有关于可以在这种估计中预期的误差大小的指南，并且在小区域流行病学中也没有考虑。本文试图通过产生2010年的Vintagetage单年度人口普查估计数来填补当前的空白，然后根据2010年人口普查的结果评估其准确性和准确性。这些估计是针对新墨西哥州499个人口普查区（年龄介于0至21岁之间）以及每个性别分别进行评估的。使用非参数统计量（包括中位数，2.5％和97.5％）对与这些估计相关的误差分布进行统计表征。通过模拟考虑这些错误的影响，在模拟中，将观察到的和估计的2010年人口计数用作替代分母，并使用模拟事件计数来计算实际范围的患病率值。考虑了本研究结果对癌症和环境健康中小面积流行病学研究的意义。

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