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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development
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Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

机译：印度洋变暖威胁着东部和南部非洲的粮食安全但可以通过农业发展得到缓解

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摘要

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ≈15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling “millions of undernourished people” as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.
机译：自1980年以来，东部和南部非洲的食物不足人数增加了一倍以上。在1990年代，农村发展停滞，农村贫困加剧。人口增长仍然很高，人均农业能力下降阻碍了实现千年发展目标的进展。对原地台站数据的分析和对降水的卫星观测发现了另一个有问题的趋势：在聚集在印度洋西部边缘的粮食不安全国家，主要的生长季节降雨收入减少了约15％。在依赖雨养农业的贫穷国家的主要生长季节中，这些下降在社会上是危险的。他们会坚持还是加剧？追踪上游人为变暖的印度洋的水分亏空，使我们得出结论，降雨可能进一步下降。我们目前的分析表明，印度洋中部的变暖破坏了陆上的水分运输，减少了大陆性降雨。因此，20世纪晚期的人为印度洋变暖可能已经通过在世界上一些最脆弱的粮食经济中造成干旱和社会破坏而产生了具有社会危险性的气候变化。通过将“数百万营养不良”建模为降雨，人口，耕地面积，种子和肥料使用的函数，我们对观测到的降水和农业生产能力趋势的潜在影响进行量化。目前趋势的持续存在可能导致营养不足人口到2030年增加50％。另一方面，人均农业生产率的适度提高可能会抵消观测到的降水量下降的影响。投资农业发展可以帮助减轻气候变化，同时减少农村贫困和脆弱性。

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