• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >From the Cover: Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population
【2h】

From the Cover: Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

机译：从封面：人口模型和IPCC气候预测预测帝企鹅数量的减少

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务，本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文，但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁，仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况，如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.
机译：研究报告了最近的气候变化对南极物种的重要影响，但据我们所知，没有尝试将这些结果与预测的人口对气候变化的反应明确地联系起来。随着大气温室气体（GHGs）浓度的增加，南极海冰面积（SIE）预计将缩小，帝企鹅（Aptenodytes forsteri）对这些变化极为敏感，因为它们将海冰用作繁殖，觅食和蜕皮的栖息地。我们使用随机种群模型来预测帝企鹅种群对未来海冰变化的反应，该模型结合了南极洲TerreAdélie殖民地的独特长期人口数据集（1962-2005年）和通用环流模型（GCM）的SIE预测政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的最新评估报告中包括了地球气候变化。我们表明，与SIE预计下降相关的温暖事件的频率增加将降低种群生存力。到2100年，准灭绝的可能性（下降95％或更多）至少为36％。在此期间，中值种群规模预计将从≈6,000减少到≈400。为了避免灭绝，帝企鹅将不得不适应，迁移或改变其生长阶段的时间。但是，考虑到未来预计的温室气体排放量增加及其对南极气候的影响，对于地球偏远南端的这种长寿命物种而言，进化或迁移似乎不太可能。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号