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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Flow regime temperature and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change
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Flow regime temperature and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

机译：在气候变化下流态温度和生物相互作用驱动鳟鱼种类的不同下降

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Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.
机译：气候变化对淡水物种影响的大规模研究主要集中在温度上，而忽略了关键的驱动因素，例如流动状态和生物相互作用。我们使用来自一般循环模型的缩减输出以及水文模型来预测流量变化和温度升高对整个美国西部内陆鳟鱼的四种相互作用物种（101万千米 2 ）的影响，基于根据在9,890个地点进行的鱼类调查建立的经验统计模型。根据2080年代A1B排放情景的预测，所有鳟鱼（具有重要社会经济和生态意义的鱼类）的总适宜生境平均下降47％。我们预测，由于温度升高超过物种的生理最佳状态，并且生物体持续不断地产生负面的相互作用，已经被非本地物种排除在其潜在范围之外的本地烈性鳟鱼Oncorhynchus clarkii将进一步丧失58％的栖息地。由于温度升高和冬天多雨导致冬季洪水频率增加，预计非本地溪鳟Salvelinus fontinalis和褐鳟Salmo trutta的栖息地将分别下降77％和48％。预计虹鳟鱼的栖息地下降最少（35％），因为负温度效应被有益于该物种的流态变化部分抵消。这些结果说明了温度以外的驱动因素如何影响物种对气候变化的响应。尽管存在一些不确定性，鳟鱼的栖息地可能会大量减少，但是我们的发现指出了将缓解措施的战略目标对准适当压力源和地点的机会。

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