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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Numerical simulations of the Macondo well blowout reveal strong control of oil flow by reservoir permeability and exsolution of gas
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Numerical simulations of the Macondo well blowout reveal strong control of oil flow by reservoir permeability and exsolution of gas

机译：Macondo井喷的数值模拟表明通过储层渗透率和瓦斯抽出可以对油流进行强有力的控制

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In response to the urgent need for estimates of the oil and gas flow rate from the Macondo well MC252-1 blowout, we assembled a small team and carried out oil and gas flow simulations using the TOUGH2 codes over two weeks in mid-2010. The conceptual model included the oil reservoir and the well with a top boundary condition located at the bottom of the blowout preventer. We developed a fluid properties module (Eoil) applicable to a simple two-phase and two-component oil-gas system. The flow of oil and gas was simulated using T2Well, a coupled reservoir-wellbore flow model, along with iTOUGH2 for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The most likely oil flow rate estimated from simulations based on the data available in early June 2010 was about 100,000 bbl/d (barrels per day) with a corresponding gas flow rate of 300 MMscf/d (million standard cubic feet per day) assuming the well was open to the reservoir over 30 m of thickness. A Monte Carlo analysis of reservoir and fluid properties provided an uncertainty distribution with a long tail extending down to 60,000 bbl/d of oil (170 MMscf/d of gas). The flow rate was most strongly sensitive to reservoir permeability. Conceptual model uncertainty was also significant, particularly with regard to the length of the well that was open to the reservoir. For fluid-entry interval length of 1.5 m, the oil flow rate was about 56,000 bbl/d. Sensitivity analyses showed that flow rate was not very sensitive to pressure-drop across the blowout preventer due to the interplay between gas exsolution and oil flow rate.
机译：为响应迫切需要从Macondo井MC252-1井喷估算油气流量的需求，我们在2010年中期组建了一个小组，并使用TOUGH2代码进行了两周的油气流量模拟。概念模型包括储油层和井孔，边界条件位于防喷器底部。我们开发了适用于简单的两相和两组分油气系统的流体特性模块（Eoil）。使用T2Well（一个耦合的储层与井筒流动模型）以及iTOUGH2（用于敏感性分析和不确定性定量）模拟了油气的流动。根据2010年6月上旬的可用数据通过模拟估算出的最可能的石油流量约为100,000bbl / d（桶/日），相应的天然气流量为300MMscf / d（百万标准立方英尺/日），假设井向储层开放超过30 m的厚度。对储层和流体性质进行的蒙特卡洛分析提供了不确定性分布，长尾巴向下延伸至60,000 bbl / d的油（170 MMscf / d的气）。流速对储层渗透率最敏感。概念模型的不确定性也很重要，特别是对于向油藏开放的井的长度而言。对于1.5 m的流体进入间隔长度，油的流速约为56,000 bbl / d。敏感性分析表明，由于气体排空与油流速之间的相互作用，流速对防喷器两端的压降不是很敏感。

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