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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period
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Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

机译：在上新世中期暖期期间全球热带气旋强度增加

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Given the threats that tropical cyclones (TC) pose to people and infrastructure, there is significant interest in how the climatology of these storms may change with climate. The global historical record has been extensively examined, but it is short and plagued with recurring questions about its homogeneity, limiting its effectiveness at assessing how TCs vary with climate. Past warm intervals provide an opportunity to quantify TC behavior in a warmer-than-present world. Here, we use a TC-resolving (∼25 km) global atmospheric model to investigate TC activity during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264−3.025 Ma) that shares similarities with projections of future climate. Two experiments, one driven by the reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the other by the SSTs from an ensemble of mid-Pliocene simulations, consistently predict enhanced global-average peak TC intensity during the mid-Pliocene coupled with longer duration, increased power dissipation, and a poleward migration of the location of peak intensity. The simulations are similar to global TC changes observed during recent global warming, as well as those of many future projections, providing a window into the potential TC activity that may be expected in a warmer world. Changes to power dissipation and TC frequency, especially in the Pacific, are sensitive to the different SST patterns, which could affect the viability of the role of TCs as a factor for maintaining a reduced zonal SST gradient during the Pliocene, as recently hypothesized.
机译：鉴于热带气旋（TC）对人和基础设施构成的威胁，人们对这些风暴的气候如何随气候变化而产生极大的兴趣。已经对全球历史记录进行了广泛的检查，但是它的历史短且困扰其反复性，限制了其评估TC如何随气候变化的有效性。过去的暖间隔提供了一个量化比当前暖和的世界中TC行为的机会。在这里，我们使用TC解析（约25 km）的全球大气模型研究了上新世中期（3.264-3.025 Ma）的TC活动，该活动与未来气候的预测具有相似之处。两项实验，其中一项是由重建的海面温度（SST）驱动的，另一项是由来自上新世中期整体的SST进行的，这些实验一致地预测了上新世中期全球平均峰值TC强度增强，同时持续时间更长，功率增加了耗散，以及峰值强度位置的极向迁移。这些模拟类似于最近全球变暖期间观测到的全球TC变化，以及许多未来的预测，为了解世界变暖可能带来的潜在TC活动提供了一个窗口。功率和TC频率的变化（特别是在太平洋地区）对不同的SST模式敏感，这可能会影响TC的作用的可行性，这是上新世期间保持区域SST梯度减小的一个因素，如最近假设的那样。

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