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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >PNAS Plus: Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia
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PNAS Plus: Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

机译：PNAS Plus：极端气候和预计变暖威胁地中海全新世冷杉森林避难所

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摘要

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.
机译：预计21世纪将出现更干燥的气候条件。然而，人们仍然很少了解极端气候事件对森林脆弱性的作用。例如，更严重的干旱和热浪可能威胁到第四纪遗迹树的避难所，例如环地中海冷杉林（CMFF）。我们使用树木年轮数据和基于过程的模型，对近期（1950–2010）CMFF增长的主要气候制约因素进行了特征描述，以预测其对21世纪气候的脆弱性。模拟预测，在2050年代照常排放的情况下，某些冷杉树种的生长量将减少30％，而潮湿的避难所的生长将由于生长季节更长和温度更高而增加。当前处于温暖和干燥条件下的杉木种群在21世纪后期将是最脆弱的，那时的气候条件类似于20世纪后期导致死亡的最严重的干旱/高温季节。根据气候情景对增长趋势进行量化，可以定义树木种群的脆弱性阈值。提出的预测要求采取保护策略，以保护残tree树种群，并预测21世纪的旱季可能威胁多少避难所。

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