• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States
【2h】

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States

机译：预计气候变化将对全美国峰值电力需求的频率和强度产生严重影响

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务，本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文，但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁，仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况，如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today’s technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.
机译：有人提出，到本世纪末及以后，气候变化对电力部门的影响将占全球经济损失的大部分[Rose S，et al。 （2014）了解碳的社会成本：技术评估]。经验文献表明，气候驱动的影响对总体消费的影响显着增加，但并未集中在驱动高峰需求的极端事件的强度和频率增加上，这是一个时期内观察到的最高负荷，这对成本产生了影响。我们在负载均衡权限级别使用全面的高频数据来参数化主要经济体的平均或峰值用电需求与温度之间的关系。使用统计模型，我们分析了来自美国166个负载均衡机构的多年数据。我们将估计的温度响应函数（用于每日总消耗量和每日峰值负荷）与18个按比例缩小的全球气候模型（GCM）结合在一起，以模拟气候变化驱动的两种结果的影响。我们显示出消费的中度和异质性变化，到本世纪末平均增长了2.8％。但是，根据当今的技术和电力市场基本情况，我们的峰值负载模拟结果表明，整个美国的峰值事件的强度和频率都显着增加。由于电网的建设可承受最大负荷，因此我们的发现对建设昂贵的峰值发电容量具有重要意义，这表明到本世纪末，照常营业还会增加高达1800亿美元的峰值发电成本。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号